AGP Executive Report

Iran Escalation: Washington says it can maintain its blockade of Iranian ports indefinitely, while reports of possible US-Israeli strikes after the US midterms have pushed oil above $116 a barrel. Tehran has warned of a wider response if attacked. Regional Diplomacy: Foreign ministers from Türkiye, Egypt, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and European powers met in Istanbul, with Türkiye’s Hakan Fidan warning that a new attack on Iran would deepen instability and that diplomacy is the only path forward. Israel’s Election: Benjamin Netanyahu faces a tight contest against former army chief Gadi Eisenkot on Tuesday, campaigning on security and opposition to a Palestinian state. No clear coalition majority is in sight, and Netanyahu has ordered a West Bank lockdown ahead of the vote. Jordan Violence: Seven people were killed and 34 wounded when gunmen opened fire during a funeral at a church in Karak. Authorities called it a terrorist attack and launched an investigation.

West Bank Violence: Washington Post journalist Heidi Levine says an attack by Israeli settlers while she covered the olive harvest has strengthened her resolve to report on Palestinians; she described the violence as a daily threat for local communities. Iran Tensions: The US and Israel have drawn up plans for a possible renewed strike campaign after the November 3 US midterms, with Iranian nuclear, energy and military sites among reported targets. Tehran warns it could hit US bases and other targets across the Gulf, as shipping attacks near Hormuz raise fears of a wider conflict. Washington is also reducing its diplomatic and military presence in the region. Israel’s Election: Israelis vote October 27 in a closely watched contest over Benjamin Netanyahu’s leadership, though analysts caution a change of government may not alter Israel’s core security policies. Regional Diplomacy: European and Middle Eastern foreign ministers are due to meet in Istanbul as Qatar and France press for diplomacy to preserve regional stability.

Iran-US Escalation: Washington has ordered some diplomats and families out of Saudi Arabia and reduced personnel at several regional bases as Houthi attacks on Saudi targets kill civilians and disrupt security. Tehran says seven vessels were struck near the Strait of Hormuz and threatens Gulf oil, data and AI facilities if US-Israeli attacks resume; Trump dismissed reports of some attacks as “fake.” Reports say Washington and Israel are preparing possible strikes after the US midterms. Regional Diplomacy: Qatar and France reaffirmed their strategic partnership in Doha, discussing Gulf security, the Iran conflict and restoring freedom of navigation through Hormuz. UN chief António Guterres urged an end to widening conflicts and protection for civilians. Israel’s Election: Former army chief Gadi Eisenkot is pitching himself as a calmer alternative to Netanyahu ahead of the October 27 vote, though analysts say a change of leader may not alter Israel’s Iran policy. Eastern Mediterranean: Libya’s eastern parliament approved a maritime deal with Türkiye, reinforcing Ankara’s contested claims and raising tensions with Greece.

Saudi Escalation: Washington ordered non-emergency embassy staff and families to leave Saudi Arabia as Houthi attacks intensify. A drone interception near an oil facility killed two people, while an attack on Dammam’s airport killed one and injured eight. Iran War Risk: The US and Israel have drawn up plans for a possible short, intense strike campaign after the US midterms, targeting Iranian nuclear, energy and military sites. President Donald Trump has not approved an operation; Tehran warns US political assets and infrastructure could be targets if war resumes. Diplomacy: Oman is pressing to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and mediate between Tehran and Washington, despite suffering strikes itself. Israel’s Vote: Netanyahu’s calls to overthrow Iran’s government have heightened concern that the Israeli election could coincide with a new military escalation.

Iran Escalation: Netanyahu says overthrowing Iran’s government is now Israel’s “primary objective,” as Washington sends up to 10,000 additional troops to the Middle East and talks stall. Oman’s Mediation: During Sultan Haitham’s state visit to London, UK leaders praised Muscat’s efforts to broker talks and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, underscoring Oman’s role as a channel between Tehran and Washington. Israel’s Election: Netanyahu’s threats against Iran have become a central campaign message ahead of Israel’s October 27 vote, while Trump has endorsed him. Regional Tensions: Libya’s eastern parliament approved a maritime deal with Turkey, drawing EU objections and concern in Israel over regional boundaries and infrastructure. Syria and Yemen: Israeli forces advanced into southern Syria, raising fears their presence could become entrenched; meanwhile, Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia have prompted Britain to send fighter jets to defend the kingdom.

Israel-Iran Tensions: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has made regime change in Iran a central election pledge, while Washington has not publicly adopted that goal. Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth met Netanyahu during an unannounced visit, days after President Donald Trump endorsed him; Vice-President JD Vance has declined to do so. Gulf Security: Britain is sending RAF Typhoons to help defend Saudi cities and infrastructure from Houthi attacks, as the conflict threatens shipping and oil supplies. Yemen Crisis: In besieged Taiz, food and fuel prices have doubled, the UN says, with shortages endangering hospital patients. It is urging the Houthis to allow supplies in. US-Iran Diplomacy: US envoy Tom Barrack said Iran’s government is “not an evil regime,” distinguishing it from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, as talks remain stalled. Qatar has urged Tehran to safeguard Gulf waters.

Saudi-Houthi Escalation: Britain says it will send Typhoon jets and a refuelling aircraft to support Saudi Arabia’s air defences, while stressing the missions will be defensive. Houthi claims of attacks on Saudi energy sites and airports have pushed oil prices to five-month highs and prompted Riyadh to postpone its “Davos in the Desert” investment summit until 2027. Regional Diplomacy: Russia’s foreign minister met Iran’s leaders in Tehran, pledging support as Moscow seeks influence over the conflict’s outcome. Pakistan’s army chief also arrived for talks, and Qatar urged de-escalation. Security Pact: Türkiye has submitted its defence agreement with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan to parliament for ratification. Signed in August, it treats an armed attack on one signatory as an attack on all. Yemen and Gaza: The UN called for immediate aid access to besieged Taiz, where Houthi forces have blocked a key supply route. In Gaza, reported Israeli strikes and continued attacks during the nominal ceasefire underline how fragile the truce remains. Israel’s Election: Donald Trump endorsed Benjamin Netanyahu ahead of Israel’s October 27 vote; Vice President JD Vance declined to back either candidate.

Saudi Security: Houthi attacks and claimed strikes on Saudi airports and energy sites have disrupted Riyadh and prompted the kingdom to postpone its flagship Future Investment Initiative until 2027. Pakistan said Saudi security is non-negotiable and pledged support. US-Israel-Iran: US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth reportedly met Benjamin Netanyahu in an unannounced visit as Washington and Israel weigh renewed strikes on Iran. President Donald Trump endorsed Netanyahu ahead of Israel’s election, while the prime minister called for completing the effort to eliminate Iran’s threat. Diplomacy: Pakistan’s Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi said Islamabad had not abandoned efforts to mediate between Washington and Tehran, urging patience and continued dialogue.

Iran Diplomacy: Abbas Araghchi said Tehran and Moscow are coordinating on US-Iran talks as Russia seeks to prevent a wider regional war; he blamed Washington for tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and urged diplomacy. Saudi Security: Saudi Arabia has postponed its flagship Future Investment Initiative in-person event amid near-daily Houthi attacks, while Egypt says it is ready to support the kingdom. Any Egyptian troop deployment would require parliamentary approval and a Saudi request. Israel’s Election: Donald Trump endorsed Benjamin Netanyahu ahead of the Oct. 27 vote, while Arab activists are urging higher turnout, which could prove decisive. Netanyahu’s security doctrine emphasizes pre-emptive action, and Itamar Ben-Gvir says Netanyahu is trying to keep him out of the next government. Palestinian Politics: The Palestinian Authority has postponed November’s parliamentary elections for several months, citing security, political and logistical obstacles; the vote would have been the first since 2006.

Egypt-Saudi Security: President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi is seeking parliamentary authorization to send military support to Saudi Arabia as Houthi attacks intensify, raising the risk of a wider regional escalation. Israeli Election: Donald Trump endorsed Benjamin Netanyahu ahead of Israel’s Oct. 27 vote, praising his role in the war on Iran and warning the US may have to act alone if he loses. Palestinian Politics: The Palestinian Authority has postponed parliamentary elections planned for Nov. 28, citing security, political and logistical obstacles. The vote would have been the first legislative election since 2006. Iran Conflict: Iranian commanders say they are preparing for renewed fighting and threaten to expand attacks if the US resumes hostilities. Regional Diplomacy: Iraq renewed its call for a Gulf security framework involving Iran, arguing regional stability must be built through cooperation among Middle Eastern states.

Palestinian Politics: The Palestinian Authority has postponed its Nov. 28 parliamentary election for several months, citing worsening political, security and economic conditions. The vote would have been the first legislative election since 2006; Palestinian factions agreed to resume national dialogue alongside the delay. Israel’s Election: Donald Trump endorsed Benjamin Netanyahu for re-election, days before Israelis vote on Oct. 27. Netanyahu, presenting Israel’s security doctrine, said Israeli and Russian interests increasingly clash, particularly over Moscow’s cooperation with Iran. Regional Security: Iran’s new defence minister warned the US would suffer “enormous damage” if it resumes attacks, while Iran struck a Kurdish opposition base in Iraqi Kurdistan. Yemen’s renewed fighting has killed civilians, and Egypt has signaled readiness to support Saudi Arabia as Houthi attacks heighten risks to Red Sea security.

Palestinian Politics: The Palestinian Authority postponed its Nov. 28 parliamentary election for several months, citing security, economic and logistical obstacles. The vote would have been the first since 2006; Palestinian factions also agreed to resume national dialogue. Yemen and Gulf Security: A Yemeni official rejected Iran’s offer to mediate, accusing Tehran of arming and financing the Houthis. Saudi Arabia reported intercepting four drones as Houthi attacks raise regional tensions. Energy Risks: Brent crude neared $110 a barrel amid fears over Middle East supply disruptions, adding pressure on governments and global markets. Egypt’s Succession: President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi said he will leave office in 2030 and proposed a military-run program to prepare a new generation of leaders. West Bank: Israeli settlers attacked Palestinians and a journalist during the olive harvest, while European officials warned companies against financing the planned E1 settlement.

Gulf Security: Iran’s attacks on shipping have mostly failed, according to a U.S. military spokesman, but a projectile hit and sank the container ship GFS Pride in the Strait of Hormuz. Separately, a small boat fired at an LNG tanker off Yemen before its armed guards drove it away. Yemen: Saudi Arabia says it has intercepted missiles and drones and destroyed Houthi launchers; Iran denies backing the attacks. Palestinian Politics: The Palestinian Authority has postponed the Nov. 28 legislative election for several months, citing political, security and logistical obstacles. It would have been the first parliamentary vote since 2006; factions also agreed to resume national dialogue. West Bank: The European Council warned businesses of possible legal and reputational consequences for involvement in Israel’s E1 settlement project, which it says could undermine prospects for a Palestinian state. Egypt: President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi said his term will end in 2030 and proposed a 30-month military academy program to prepare potential future leaders.

Saudi-Yemen Escalation: Missiles struck Aden airport as the Saudi-led coalition reported intercepting drones and missiles over Riyadh and near Yanbu, a key oil-export hub. Saudi Arabia accuses Iran of encouraging Houthi attacks; Tehran denies involvement. Iran and Diplomacy: President Trump says the US campaign against Iran will end soon, while Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian denies seeking nuclear weapons and says Tehran is ready for talks. Trump also urged Saudi Arabia to accept Israeli help against the Houthis, saying Saudi-Israeli normalization may be closer. Energy Shock: Brent crude touched $110 a barrel amid fears that regional attacks and shipping disruptions could tighten supply. Palestinian Politics: The Palestinian Authority has postponed parliamentary elections planned for November, citing deteriorating political, security and economic conditions. Maritime Risks: Two vessels carrying 24 Indian crew members were struck in separate incidents in the Strait of Hormuz and Romania; all were reported safe.

Palestinian Politics: The Palestinian Authority has postponed its planned Nov. 28 parliamentary election for several months, citing political, security and logistical obstacles. It would have been the first legislative vote since 2006; factions also agreed to resume national dialogue. Lebanon Diplomacy: President Joseph Aoun urged Qatar to work with regional partners to press Israel to halt attacks in southern Lebanon and implement a US-mediated framework. Regional Escalation: Houthi attacks on Saudi targets and a deadly strike on Yemen’s presidential palace are intensifying regional tensions, while Qatar called for diplomacy and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Iraq’s Economic Crisis: Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein says the war and disruption to Hormuz shipping have cost Iraq about $60 billion, as reduced oil exports strain public finances and foreign reserves.

Yemen-Saudi Escalation: Houthis struck Yemen’s presidential compound in Aden and intensified attacks on Saudi targets. Riyadh accuses Iran of encouraging the escalation, while experts say the Houthis’ weapons capabilities are growing. Iran War: The Trump administration is reportedly weighing use of a powerful non-nuclear bomb against Iranian nuclear or energy sites, as the conflict continues to threaten Gulf security and shipping. Palestinian Politics: The Palestinian Authority postponed November’s legislative election—the first planned in 20 years—citing political, security and logistical obstacles. Diplomacy: China urged Israel to halt West Bank settlement expansion and pressed for Gaza aid access and a two-state solution. India called for de-escalation and condemned attacks on Saudi civilian infrastructure. Regional Security: South Korea is reviewing whether to extend its anti-piracy mission toward the Gulf of Oman amid growing maritime threats. UN Leadership: Secretary-general frontrunner Rebeca Grynspan says the UN must take more diplomatic risks as it is sidelined in conflicts.